The global economy is projected to contract by 3 percent in the year 2020 much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high human costs worldwide. As there are no proven medicines or vaccines to contain this pandemic, various countries had to resort to social distancing and the complete lock-down in the severely affected places. It is but natural the level of economic activity has slowed down and it is being visualized as even worse than the Great Depression of 1930s.
Even before the advent of Covid19, the IMF was warning that the rise in corporate debt burdens, increase in the riskier and more illiquid assets by the institutional investors and growing reliance on external borrowings by emerging and frontier economies had increased the key vulnerabilities in the global financial system. To add to the woes, there was a spur in the trade disputes which had increased the downside risks to the economic outlook.
However, the easing in financial conditions in advanced economies supported a rebound in portfolio flows to emerging markets. Besides, the accommodative policy response by several central banks across the globe though helped address the short term downside risks in the global economy but large declines in the policy rates further boosted risk assets.
The IMF had proposed that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macro-prudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Rising debt burden is all the more a concern amid rising uncertainty
Covid19 is not just a disease, it is a riddle, a paradox and a challenge to reckon with. The mightiest nations have been hit the hardest. From New York to Mumbai death toll is higher in cities which were otherwise full of life, vigour, speed and work.
From globalization to isolation it is a reversal of the cycle. From opening up of the borders to recreating physical boundaries across nations, states, cities and colonies, it is a move to protect against further contagion. From socialization to social distancing, it is a difficult time to deal with. And simply because the crisis is unique, there would be trials and errors and a great deal of learning costs involved in dealing with it effectively.
As nations follow mass lock-downs and social distancing a majority of service and manufacturing units are rendered as either non-functional or sub-functional. While most these entities may have to bear the cost of retaining talent in the organisation, their resources may soon be stressed out due to revenue streams blocked or impaired. There may be grave fiscal imbalances as governments resort to increase in expenditure on the health infrastructure and upkeep of the vulnerable sections of the society through direct cash transfers or providing food and shelter.
The sources of revenue from direct and indirect taxes are getting dried up due to lock-down or suspension of economic activities in several sectors and consequent rise in unemployment. Badly affected sectors include travel, aviation, oil, manufacturing, hotels, transportation and trade etc. which provide bulk of employment in any economy. Hence, many governments may have to resort to borrowing which may only increase the debt burden for the economies; particularly those, which were already reeling under heavy debt burden even before the covid19 era.
Things may just get more complicated now.
According to IMF estimates, the average incidence of gross debt in case of select advanced countries could well rise to around 120 per cent of their GDP. The challenges are far graver for emerging markets and developing economies – particularly those which have inadequate health infrastructure, more constrained macroeconomic policy space and already higher debt burdens.
The Central Banks of many countries have taken multi-pronged measures to deal with this unprecedented crisis. The governments of several affected nations have also declared voluminous economic stimulus. But it is not certain how effective these measures would be in lifting up the level of effective demand in affected economies
Further, as corona virus is sparing none, emerging economies may face double whammy. On one hand, they may grapple with constrained budgetary resources as expenses inflate amid decelerating revenue incomes. And on the other hand, if their stock markets under-perform and businesses run into financial distress, they may face net foreign capital outflows. Fall in commodity prices and lack of export surplus or effective demand for that matter may further constrain them in the servicing of their existing foreign debts.
Rising debts are something we may have to bear with for now
Although the rising debt burden could sound alarm bells for some, I look upon it as an inevitable consequence of the covid19 pandemic. As rational economists, we may have to weigh the alternative sources of covid19 financing. Experts predict that the covid19 is likely to stay with us for a long while. And we’ll be on edge until a vaccine is found.
I think at this time, many countries may have to bear with rising debt levels. There are ways to deal with it later. The still larger issues are: how to contain the pandemic in the affected regions and how to restore economic activities in the unaffected regions. The closure of movement across the affected and non-affected regions may have to continue.
In a nut shell, we may have to appreciate that corona has hit some countries harder than others. Within a country, it has hurt some states harder than others. Within a state, it has hurt some cities more than others and within some cities, some localities are affected more grievously. Even in a particular hotspot, some buildings and people of certain age or disease profile are infected more than others.
One strategy could be to fight the covid19 war as guerrilla wars where targeted attacks on the pandemic could be more effective than finding a universal solution for all the regions or countries. This would mean utilization of the limited resources in the most effective way in order to contain the ill effects of the pandemic and eventually bringing the situation under control. The focus should be on how to deploy the limited resources in a more effective way so that the cost of debt servicing can be reduced.
Very informative