As early as October 2022, there were talks about how consistently the US dollar had been gaining strength over a period of 11 years even as the global economy reeled out of the Global recessionary phase (2007-09) and also faced the challenges posed by the Pandemic phase (2020-2021) making this the longest US dollar strengthening cycle in history.
The supremacy of the US dollar was well reflected through the nominal broad US dollar index in the recent past since May 2021 till the month of October 2022 where it peaked at its highest level since 2002 as it strengthened itself substantially over the other leading currencies of the World.
We observe that the US dollar has emerged stronger after every crisis period in the last two decades.
If we consider the real broad dollar index that is adjusted for differences in national rates of inflation, well it has also reportedly increased sharply, corroborating with the trend for over a decade as depicted in the Chart 1 above. In inflation-adjusted (real) terms, the US dollar stands much above its 2007-09 recession levels. (Chart 2 below)
One strong reason that explains strengthening of the dollar taking a peak in October 2022 is the hawkish stance taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) which has hiked rates faster and more frequently than its counterparts in other advanced economies.
Yet, as we observe in the above charts, the US dollar continued strengthening itself against other currencies of the world barring exceptions such as the Great recession and the Covid19 (which rather hit every other economy to some degree or the other) and so clearly there are other factors also that go in favour of the US dollar.
One such factor was that the US economy was able to grow faster than most other advanced economies and its equity markets also have given higher return on capital. It was but natural that it could attract capital from abroad into US equity markets. On the other hand US was able to achieve self sufficiency in the energy products which reduced its dependence on the import of petro products and so the increase in oil prices at the international level did not impact it as much as it impacted its peers.
What has caused US dollars loose sheen in the recent times
Many analysts believed that since the factors that caused the USD appreciate to its peak levels in October, 2022 are not going to fade away so soon there was a high probability that the US dollar shall continue its spree. However, as we observe in the Chart 1, that US dollar seemed to have lost some sheen in the most recent months. The question is how and why?
One thing is simple. If US exports become expensive and US imports become cheaper due to currency differentials this is going to disturb its current account balance. Also as the dollar is internationally accepted medium of exchange, the current account balance of other countries who are net importers with their trade partners, is also going to suffer as well.
Secondly, a strong US dollar would have eventually had an asymmetric impact on global growth outcomes particularly through the transmission of the monetary policy. According to the IMF World Economic Outlook report, October 2022, More than a third of the global economy was projected to contract in the year 2022 and even in the succeeding year 2023 and the top three economies, viz., the United States, the European Union, and China growth will continue to stall. The IMF summed up the scenario in short, “the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession”.
Thirdly, some analysts have observed that the rapid appreciation in the value of dollar also has increased the volatility in the currency and capital markets. Increase in the risk premia tends to depress valuations. Investors start looking for more stable or less risky investment options as well.
Fourthly, when dollar appreciates it tends to make US exports more expensive and imports cheaper which eventually puts pressures on its current account deficit and it is observed that it has started to deteriorate since 2019. The opposite happens to its peers! The weakening of the euro, yen, pound, or renminbi increases the competitiveness of its peer economies, giving a boost to their economic activity.
Even as the growth rates in the US and for that matter in its peer economies depend on many other variables, yet fluctuation in the dollar is an important factor to reckon with. Global growth rate is also likely to be affected by the tightening of the monetary policy measures taken up to curb inflation in many developing and emerging economies as well.
The IMF observes that “Downside risks to the outlook remain elevated, while policy trade-offs to address the cost-of-living crisis have become acutely challenging. The risk of monetary, fiscal, or financial policy miscalibration has risen sharply at a time when the world economy remains historically fragile and financial markets are showing signs of stress.”
Clearly there were pressures observed to be building up as observed in the IMF report of April 2022 and October 2022 on account of several factors discussed therein on the global economy and so in this interconnected world, the US and for that matter dollar could not be an exception.
Financial Crisis in the US will also pose challenge
The United States reportedly could run out of cash to pay its bills by the early June as it is fast approaching its prescribed debt limit. According to the US treasury, the debt limit is the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and other payments.
This new development has simply increased the risk of unprecedented default and if it occurs, it may have a significant impact on the global economy as well. Even if the US Congress mandates to raise the debt limit and the crisis gets averted for now, yet it may involve putting restrictions on the government to its prospective expenditures.
In the recently held G7 meeting which was already preoccupied by U.S. bank failures and efforts to reduce reliance on China the participants were compelled to grapple with challenges posed by a potential default by the world’s largest economy which appeared to it as “more difficult” than in the past even as it remained hopeful of a solution.
But the capital market seems to be preoccupied as of now with the high hopes that the negotiations to raise the debt limit are on the right track and so all three major U.S. stock indexes rallied to end up more than 1% and this has helped the dollar attain a a six-week high at the time of writing this Article.
The US dollar is thus affected by so many factors operating at the domestic and international level. The uncertainty as regards its movement keeps the global economy on its toes and so even as there are discussions going about some decline in the dollar share of international reserves since the turn of the century as reflected by active portfolio diversification by central bank reserve managers but at the same time it is observed that strikingly, the decline in the dollar’s share has not been accompanied by an increase in the shares its peer currencies such as pound sterling, yen and euro, rather, the shift out of dollars has comprised of currencies of developing and emerging economies.
To conclude, the dominance of dollar is here to stay and the global economy has to continue to face challenges posed by the fluctuations in its value on either side!